Good morning, Sabres fans.
Hockey is back. The Sabres are back. The Charge is back.
Life is good.
In today’s issue:
What to expect from The Charge this season.
How good can this Sabres core be? (they believe very)
Our 2022-23 Sabres Predictions.
30+ Sabres Player Profiles + Top 25 Prospect Ranking (50+ page free PDF)
What to Expect
With what’s shaping up to be an exciting Sabres season on the horizon, myself (@JaredHalt) and Walt (@Sabremetrix) are super excited to kick off year two of the weekly newsletter.
Every week: We’ll have at least one issue with news & in-depth analysis, very similar to last year.
We’re also looking to sprinkle in a 2nd newsletter every couple of weeks — something fun like a Monday Mailbag or another roundtable with the TCB crew.
It should be a fun year.
Now let’s get into what you’re actually here for.
The Sabres — how good can they be?
We’ll eventually find out.
But if there’s one thing for certain: they believe this group can be very good.
This off-season, they:
Signed Tage Thompson to a 7-year extension.
Signed Mattias Samuelsson to a 7-year extension.
Signed GM Kevyn Adams to a multi-year extension.
Signed HC Don Granato to a multi-year extension.
Expecting this trend to continue, Dylan Cozens (2023-24 RFA) and Rasmus Dahlin (2024-25 RFA) should be next in line for massive contracts tying them to Buffalo for the next 7-8 years. That could be as early as next summer.
No one would be surprised if the likes of Owen Power, Jack Quinn, and others did the same a few years down the road.
Some people are looking at these long-term deals as risks, but the Sabres are making calculated bets on players they believe in. They’re identifying their core and going all in on the players they know better than anyone.
We’ll see if it pays off, but the Sabres clearly believe in this group.
If anything, that’s pretty exciting.
2022-23 Sabres Prediction Roundtable:
I conducted a poll with 5 TCB writers on the upcoming season.
Here are the results:
Team MVP?
Walt - Alex Tuch
Curtis - Rasmus Dahlin
Austin - Rasmus Dahlin
Joe - Rasmus Dahlin
Bill - Rasmus Dahlin
Which Sabre will have a breakout season?
Walt - Dylan Cozens
Curtis - Dylan Cozens
Austin - Dylan Cozens
Joe - Dylan Cozens
Bill - Rasmus Asplund
Will the Sabres make the playoffs?
Walt - No
Curtis - No
Austin - No
Joe - No
Bill - No
Where will the Sabres finish in the Atlantic Division?
Walt - 7th
Curtis - 5th
Austin - 6th
Joe - 6th
Bill - 6th
Looking at the Sabres’ odds to win the Atlantic Division across all of the NY Sportsbooks on BetStamp, it looks like Caesar’s Sportsbook (+2800) likes their odds much more than others.
In terms of the best value, BetRivers has them at a whopping +10,000 to win the division.
Not very surprising when you look around and see the likes of Tampa Bay, Florida, Toronto, and other interesting young teams in Detroit and Ottawa.
If you’re feeling a magical run, a $10 bet would result in a $1000 payout.
Biggest Sabres hot take for the season?
Walt - “UPL is the starting goalie by the end of the season.”
Curtis - “Peyton Krebs under 30 points.”
Austin - “The Sabres will have 4 30+ goal scorers (Quinn, Thompson, Skinner, Olofsson)
Joe - “Zemgus Girgensons will fetch a 1st-round-pick at the trade deadline.”
Bill - “Owen Power gets a Norris vote.”
Who will be the Sabres’ unsung hero?
Walt - Rasmus Asplund
Curtis - Dylan Cozens
Austin - Rasmus Asplund
Joe - Mattias Samuelsson
Bill - Mattias Samuelsson
Predict the Stanley Cup Final.
Walt - Wild > Hurricanes
Curtis - Avalanche > Maple Leafs
Austin - Hurricanes > Wild
Joe - Hurricanes > Wild
Bill - Avalanche > Hurricanes
Over/Unders
Team Points: O/U 78
Walt - Over
Curtis - Over
Austin - Over
Joe - Over
Bill - Over
Jeff Skinner Goals: O/U 30
Walt - Under
Curtis - Under
Austin - Over
Joe - Under
Bill - Under
Tage Thompson Goals: O/U 32
Walt - Over
Curtis - Over
Austin - Over
Joe - Over
Bill - Over
Dylan Cozens Points: O/U 60
Walt - Under
Curtis - Under
Austin - Under
Joe - Under
Bill - Under
Jack Quinn Goals: O/U 23
Walt - Under
Curtis - Over
Austin - Over
Joe - Over
Bill - Over
Eric Comrie Wins: O/U 27
Walt - Under
Curtis - Over
Austin - Under
Joe - Under
Bill - Under
2022-23 Sabres Preview Guide
Many of you are familiar with our annual NHL Draft Guide.
This season, we decided to put together a similar e-book with 30+ Analytics-Based Player Profiles + a Top 25 Prospect Ranking from our group of prospect analysts.
You can check that out for free here: https://issuu.com/thechargingbufalo/docs/2022-23_tcb_player_profile_guide
Thanks for reading!
Let us know your thoughts ahead of tonight’s game.