What a week it has been for the Buffalo Sabres. They earned a point in four consecutive games, they are finally getting the goaltending they have wanted, and Alex Tuch has finally been cleared to make his Sabres debut.
This team may be a rebuilding team, but at least they have been a fun rebuilding team. Mix in the youth performing well in their respective leagues and you have the ingredients for a pretty exciting future (the first time we’ve been able to say that in a while).
Unfortunately, the season has been placed on hold due to COVID cases within the Columbus Blue Jackets and Colorado Avalanche organizations, but at least there are some fun things to look forward to when it eventually resumes.
By the Numbers 📊
Record: 10-15-5 (25 points) | Division: 6th | League: 27th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 46.2% (27th in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 45.0% (26th in the NHL)
Rasmus Dahlin: A developmental puzzle
I think it has been pretty clear that Rasmus Dahlin’s development path has been about as unique (and frustrating) as it could possibly be.
It’s not common for a 16-year-old defenseman to make Sweden’s World Juniors roster and become a mainstay in the SHL. It’s not common for a 17-year-old defenseman to be a 0.5 point-per-game player in the SHL and be named defenseman of the tournament at the World Juniors.
His rookie season in the NHL at 18? It was borderline flawless. Positive impact player on both ends of the ice, QB of an effective power-play unit, and 44 points!
He would also do stuff like this:
He was just a young and confident defenseman who played with flair. He was not seen as a player who had to develop because he was Rasmus freaking Dahlin. Unfortunately, things would take a turn for the worse under Ralph Krueger in 2019/20 and something has been off ever since.
I know, I know he has scored three goals in his past three games, but the underlying numbers still aren’t there for Dahlin. He had a 32.4 xGF% at 5v5 last week, the worst on the team by a significant margin.
Let’s first highlight some of his continuing problems:
Defending 1v1’s
This hasn’t been a problem over the last few weeks (primarily because he hasn’t really been faced with one), but he is prone to poor footwork while defending 1v1 situations leading to some embarrassing goals against.
I also believe this weakness causes him to be more hesitant in the offensive zone, so this really affects his overall game as it neutralizes one of his strengths.
Lack of Confidence
We saw rookie year Rasmus Dahlin in the clip above. The confidence and gall it takes for an 18-year-old to mess around with the LA Kings like that is something else. This season: he’s looking for a pass as soon as enters the zone, not enough rushes down low (which is welcomed, if not encouraged in Don Granato’s system!).
Enough of the weaknesses, let’s dive into some of his strengths:
Skill Level
We have all seen Rasmus Dahlin’s highlight mixtape from his time as a prospect in Frölunda. We have all seen the stuff he managed to pull off in his rookie season in Buffalo. He has immense skill for a defenseman and the only key that will completely unlock this part of his game is confidence.
Elite Board Usage
It’s not true that Rasmus Dahlin can’t defend, he is very adept at using the boards to win back possession. In 2020/21, he was 4th among NHL defensemen in 5v5 takeaways per 60 according to InStat’s tracked data. Things only tend to get messy when the puck is out in the open with no support from the boards or his teammates.
So these are the pieces of the Rasmus Dahlin puzzle that we are left with. It’s just up to Don Granato and his staff to find a way to rekindle the old Dahlin and transform him into one of the premier defensemen in the league.
The Arrival of Alex Tuch
The much-anticipated arrival of Alex Tuch is finally here. He was set to make his Sabres debut against the Blue Jackets tonight, but that game was postponed (just the Sabres luck).
It’s always cool when a small market team like Buffalo manages to get a player who grew up as a fan of the team, it also helps that he happens to be really good at that hockey thing too.
What to expect from Alex Tuch? Expect him to be the best player on the ice for the Buffalo Sabres. Maybe not right away as he works to get his feet back under him, but expect him to reach that level by season’s end.
His past point totals may not be eye-catching, but he has fantastic underlying numbers. He was in the 93rd percentile of NHLers in Goals Above Replacement this past season according to Evolving-Hockey.
Tuch has grit and size. He can win a lot of puck battles without taking penalties. He has a good amount of speed and skill that allows him to be a dangerous player in the offensive zone. He’s also an effective player in transition. Essentially, he’s a player that the “old school” and “new school” fans will both enjoy.
NHL player unlikely to attend 2022 Olympics
Unfortunately, this news came across the ol’ Twitter timeline last night:
While disappointing, it is certainly understandable with rising case count and delays across the NHL. The Buffalo Sabres were expected to have a few players in the running for their respective national teams: Rasmus Dahlin (Sweden), Zemgus Girgensons (Latvia), Victor Olofsson (Sweden), and JJ Peterka (Germany).
While JJ Peterka is technically playing in the AHL, he would be ineligible for the Olympics if the NHL pulls out since he is technically signed to an NHL contract.
The Sabres NCAA prospects will all be eligible and one would have to think players like Ryan Johnson (USA), Devon Levi (Canada), and Owen Power (Canada) would be in the running to make their national teams if it was anything like the 2018 Olympics.
However, with the uncertainty surrounding COVID and possible quarantine protocols, it may be unlikely that these players’ college programs would be willing to lose them for a long period of time. Owen Power is already missing time by playing in the World Juniors and Devon Levi has started every game for Northeastern this season.
So, I guess we’ll have to watch Mikhail Grigorenko, John Gilmour, and Lawrence Pilut battle it out for a gold medal?