Well, it was certainly a week for the Buffalo Sabres. It wasn’t a good week, but it was still a week nonetheless.
A SportsCenter Top 10 goal against on Monday, a wrongfully overturned game-tying goal on Friday, and multiple rings off the post on Saturday.
Don’t look now, but the Sabres last win came on Black Friday.
By the Numbers
Record: 8-15-4 (20 points) | Division: 6th | League: 28th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 46.1% (27th in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 43.4% (26th in the NHL)
Quick Hits
Owen Power named to Team Canada’s final roster for the 2022 World Juniors
Casey Mittelstadt underwent surgery on Friday morning for an upper-body injury, the timetable for his return is unknown
The Return of UPL
One of the lesser-known Seven Wonders of the World is goaltender development. Seriously, what even is it and why does it make no sense?
Just take a look around the league and you will find Jack Campbell who went from being an 11th overall pick to a 24-year-old playing in the ECHL to a likely Vezina candidate. Look at Matt Murray, a goalie who won two Cups by the age of 23 and now finds himself in the AHL at 27.
Goalies are voodoo and our latest example of this may be Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen.
It’s no secret that UPL had a very rough start to his 2021/22 campaign in Rochester. He gave up 15 goals on 77 shots in his first 3 games, that’s only an .805 SV%. He managed to raise that SV% up to .888 over his next 9 starts, but that’s still not great!
Things were looking down on the 22-year-old Finnish goaltender. He had a .886 SV% across three AHL seasons and 37 games. He saw some NHL time in 2020/21 where he posted an underwhelming .906 SV% in his 4 appearances.
However, this last NHL stint has shown us a different side of UPL. He has posted a .938 SV% in his first 3 starts this season and has saved more goals than expected (a rarity among Buffalo goaltenders this season).
It’s absolutely worth noting that this is a very small sample size. However, we are talking about a goalie who struggled to put together consistent and respectable performances at the AHL level.
So, the fact that he has strung together 3 consecutive solid starts at the NHL level is just wild. It’s also encouraging to see, especially in a position that relies so much upon the mental side of things.
He was just making some silly saves out there against Washington and it looks like he may have his swagger back:
Sometimes, it’s best to have low expectations and I think that’s where things are currently at with UPL. He just needs to continue to play well, re-build that confidence, and fully utilize his physical gifts. Goalie development is weird.
Goaltending is back, finishing is gone
Remember when I talked about how the Sabres desperately needed average goaltending to take advantage of their good finishing in last week’s edition of The Charge? Well, they finally got the goaltending (hooray!), but the offense lost their finishing touch.
This is something that we really all saw coming. The Sabres’ finishing this season went on a few unsustainable stretches considering their talent level.
Their finishing ability finally took a sizable dip over the past few games. Here is a chart from MoneyPuck with a 5-game moving average of their goals scored above expected:
On the positive side, their 5v5 expected goals for percentage (xGF%) has been hovering around 50% over some of this shooting lull. This allowed them to keep every game competitive last week despite it ending with a 0-2-1 run. Just have to hope for fewer posts and more favorable bounces.
Dylan Cozens: Ready to boom
This seems to be the consensus among Sabres fans after Saturday’s game vs. the Capitals:
Dylan Cozens’ game was on full display with his unique blend of size, skill, and speed. He rushed down the right side to sneak past Martin Fehervary for the shot, but unfortunately rung it off the post:
He also fell victim to the post off of a deflection in the 1st period and set up Kyle Okposo with a prime scoring opportunity that was stopped by Vitek Vanecek.
It’s becoming evident that the good stuff is there at the NHL level, he is just awaiting that next step offensively. Development is not a race and Cozens should elevate to another level in due time.
They also seem to have finally found a line that works for him and it’s a non-traditional one that has Brett Murray and Kyle Okposo on his wings. Through 8 games, this line has an impressive 58.8 xGF% and has outscored their opponents 5 to 3.
Peyton Krebs hitting his stride
After a somewhat slow start with his new team in Rochester, Peyton Krebs has blown up with 8 points in his last 4 AHL games.
He posted a 3-point game against the 1st-placed Utica Comets on Wednesday that was capped off by the OT game-winning goal:
Krebs’ stat line is pretty funny to look at: 14 GP, 2 G, 14 A, 16 PTS
It’s not so much that Krebs cannot score goals, it’s more that he’s such a good playmaker that he typically defers to a pass. In fact, he was one of the better playmakers the WHL had seen in quite some time. He is very good at an area of the game that the Sabres lack in.
Game Preview: Buffalo Sabres @ Winnipeg Jets, 12/14/21
The Sabres need a win, but can they do it on a cold Tuesday night in Stoke Winnipeg.
Jets by the Numbers
Record: 13-9-5 (31 points) | Division: 5th | League: 16th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 49.5% (17th in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 55.2% (8th in the NHL)
Scouting the Jets
Sound Goaltending: the Jets have been getting great goaltending regardless of who is in net. Connor Hellebuyck continues to be one of the game’s best and Eric Comrie has been a solid backup.
Bad PK: the penalty kill has been a major problem for the Jets this season. They rank 31st in GA/60 and 29th in xGA/60. A bad Jets PK vs. a very bad Sabres PP, who will come out on top?
Players to Watch
Dylan Cozens (BUF): Cozens was simply fantastic vs. the Capitals on Saturday night. The key thing with him at this point is consistency. The more and more solid games he can string together, the more effective threat he can be at the NHL level.
Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG): is there a more under-appreciated player in the NHL than Ehlers? I don’t think so. The Danish winger is just incredibly fun to watch and is sure to dazzle with his display of speed and skill.