Trade Deadline Preview: Should I stay or should I go?
Many Sabres' players set to be on the move before March 21st
March has finally arrived: the sun is out longer, the weather is getting warmer, and the Sabres are firmly out of playoff contention.
At least the trade deadline is less than 3 weeks away!
By the Numbers š
Record: 16-30-8 (40 points) | Division: 7th | League: 29th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 44.3% (31st in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 43.3% (28th in the NHL)
Quick Hits
Jack Quinn and Vinnie Hinostroza return to practice for the Sabres, both listed as day-to-day
Sean Malone returns to practice for the Rochester Americans (AHL)
2022 NHL Trade Deadline Preview: Lots of moving pieces
I love the NHL Trade Deadline because it is the only time we get to hear about players like Ben Chiarot being dealt for a 1st round pick.
The Buffalo Sabres will be sellers once again which was expected during this rebuilding year. They have a few upcoming unrestricted free agents who will certainly be moved, maybe even a restricted free agent who could be moved.
With all of that being said, letās dive into some of the Sabres who will be on the block and what we can expect in return:
Colin Miller
Certainly the ābig tunaā of the available Sabres at the trade deadline. Miller is a right-handed defenseman, a position that many NHL teams covet.
The issue with Miller? His time in Buffalo has been pretty pedestrian relative to his time in Vegas. He has never been given more responsibility than 2nd pair minutes. He also has not played in an NHL game since mid-January and is expected to return just a week or two before the deadline.
The positives: he has 30 playoff games under his belt (GMās love playoff experience) and he has shown the ability to run a PP2 in Vegas.
So, I do not think itās too much to ask for a 2nd round pick here, likely with the Sabres retaining some money. Maybe he only goes for a 3rd round pick, but I have a difficult time imagining anything less than that.
Cody Eakin
I am not going to have the face-off debate in this article, but Cody Eakin only really excels at one thing and that thing is face-offs. He has rocked a 55.4 FO% during his time in Buffalo.
How much do face-offs matter? Well Cody Eakin wins a higher percentage of them than any other Sabre and has a 39.0 xGF% and 34.9 GF%, some of the worst numbers in the league (alright, I said I wouldnāt get into this face-off debate).
Eakin was traded at the deadline just two years ago when Vegas dealt him to Winnipeg for a conditional 4th round pick that could turn into a 3rd round pick. He also carried a $3.85 million cap hit back then, compared to $2.25 million on his new contract.
NHL teams get goofy at the deadline when it comes to bottom six centers who can win face-offs. Despite his awful on-ice results in Buffalo, I think Eakin could return the Sabres a mid-round pick, maybe a 4th round pick (or a 3rd round pick to somebody desperate).
Victor Olofsson
The first two players I listed are both pending unrestricted free agents. Olofsson, on the other hand, is a restricted free agent so the Sabres will still own his rights at the beginning of free agency.
He provides the Sabres with a bit of a conundrum. He is a goal-scorer who has not been able to score as of late. He only has 2 goals since he returned from his soft tissue injury on November 21st, one of them being an empty-netter.
Oneās best guess would be that his injury is affecting his shot hence the poor goal totals, but his numbers have yet to match his outstanding rookie season that saw him get a lot of ice time alongside Jack Eichel:
His next contract will likely carry a $4M+ cap hit and it will end with him being an unrestricted free agent. Do the Sabres want to hold the risk of overpaying for a goal-scorer who has struggled to score? If their answer is no, he may be traded at some point in 2022.
In terms of value, my guess (really just spitballing with this one) would be a 2nd round pick and a prospect. Heās shown the ability to be a high-end complementary piece, but heās really struggled to provide much of anything this season and is likely due a sizable cap hit. His trade value is just one big gray area at this point.
Mark Pysyk
Pysyk has been one of the few bright spots on the Sabres defense this season, providing the team with fantastic results for not a lot of money. Heās really just the ideal depth defenseman on the right-hand side.
He is set to become an unrestricted free agent this offseason. Thereās a bunch of playoff-bound teams who are hungry for some depth on the right side of their defense. Sounds like a recipe for a guy who could be moved at the deadline.
The return? My guess would be a 3rd round pick, maybe as low as a 4th round pick. Certainly a return that would make the Sabres think twice about parting ways with him if they believe they have even the slightest chance to re-sign him.
Robert Hagg
Hagg was a name listed by TSN as a player who could potentially have interest around the league. He has not been great for the Sabres and also struggled in his previous stint with the Flyers.
He is a physical left-handed defenseman who is poor in transition. A defensive defenseman who does not excel in shot or danger suppression.
Any pick the Sabres can get for him would be a bonus as there is not much room on the left side of that defense and he is expected to walk in the summer. I could see a 5th or 6th round pick as the return if he is moved.
Trending in the wrong direction
The Buffalo Sabres have certainly had a rough go at it over the past few weeks and are currently rocking a 6-game losing streak that has seen them get outscored 28 to 12.
Their March schedule? Not great:
They have finally slipped behind the Montreal Canadiens in 5v5 Expected Goals For % (44.3%). The only team with a worse 5v5 xGF% is now the Arizona Coyotes (42.6%). Their sub-par talent level is becoming more and more apparent, but that is to be expected in a rebuilding year.
Prospects Update: Weekend of the Goalies
What a week it was for the goalies in the Sabres system with Devon Levi and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen both posting some monster performances.
Levi appeared in his first NCAA games with Northeastern since the Olympics. He managed to stop 60 of 61 (!) shots on Friday night vs. UConn. He followed that up on Saturday by stopping 40 of 42.
That is 100 saves for Devon Levi in one weekend with only 3 goals against. He is now up to a .951 SV% on the season, not too shabby:
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen did not want Devon Levi getting all of the spotlight this weekend. He stopped 54 of 55 (!) shots in the Amerksā OT win over the Syracuse Crunch on Friday night. He would follow that up by stopping 33 of 36 against the Toronto Marlies on Sunday.
UPL has been very solid since returning to Rochester from his injury, posting an impressive .927 SV% across 6 starts. It may be time for him to get some more starts with the big club.
Game Preview: Buffalo Sabres @ Toronto Maple Leafs, 3/2/22
Doesnāt it feel like the Sabres have only played the Leafs once in the past 745 days? Well, thatās because they have!
Maple Leafs by the Numbers š
Record: 35-14-4 (74 points) | Division: 3rd | League: 5th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 55.4% (4th in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 53.7% (9th in the NHL)
Scouting the Maple Leafs
Poor goaltending: once thriving off the play of Jack Campbell, things are looking much worse in net. Only an .889 SV% for the team in February and it looks like Petr Mrazek may take over the starting job
The 1-1-3 NZ Forecheck: Toronto is one of the teams that like to sit back in a more passive 1-1-3 forecheck in the neutral zone. It will be interesting to see how much this affects the Sabresā east-west transition game
Players to Watch
Dylan Cozens (BUF): when he is on this season, he is on. Heās finally been placed on a line where he has defensively responsible wingers and has been playing much more effective hockey because of it.
Michael Bunting (TOR): it would be pretty easy to list Auston Matthews here, but letās go with the 26-year-old rookie who has been having a remarkable season. 41 points in 53 games this season and has been featured on the Leafsā top line alongside Matthews and Marner.
The Week Ahead
Friday, March 4: vs. Minnesota, 7 PM ET (TV: MSG)
Sunday, March 6: vs. Los Angeles, 1 PM ET (TV: MSG)
Monday, March 7: vs. Florida, 7 PM ET (TV: MSG)