The Buffalo Sabres are actually fun and I don’t know what to do with myself.
By the Numbers 📊
Record: 24-33-10 (58 points) | Division: 6th | League: 25th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 44.9% (28th in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 44.5% (26th in the NHL)
The Comeback Kids: Making Buffalo proud
Take a quick glance at the NHL standings or virtually any statistic and the Sabres’ 2021/22 campaign is largely underwhelming.
However, a lot has changed since September.
It was a time when the Sabres were sportsbooks’ odds-on favorite to finish in last place. It was a time when Jack Eichel’s future was uncertain. Actually, the one thing that was certain was that he would not be playing another game in a Buffalo uniform.
Tage Thompson was seen as a winger with all flash and no substance. Jeff Skinner was nothing more than an albatross on the balance sheet. Rasmus Dahlin’s potential seemed to be a distant memory.
In terms of exceeding expectations, this Sabres squad has been the most impressive team this city has seen in quite some time.
Buffalo is a simple sports city. They expect their teams to do two things: win games and play hard. If they are not able to accomplish the former, then better do their damndest to accomplish the latter.
Fortunately, this Sabres team has been able to fulfill both of their city’s expectations as of late. They boast an 8-3-2 record in their last 13 games. They battled back from a two-goal deficit against the Rangers on Sunday and a four-goal deficit against the Blackhawks on Monday.
Whether the winning games part of that equation is sustainable is a question for another day. The Sabres have given fans something they have not had in quite some time: hope and pride.
The team may still be a ways away from contending for Lord Stanley, but the proper processes are in place on the ice. Their talent gap should eventually be filled by their bounds of cap space and their impressive youth. That shiny, new analytics department is pretty impressive too.
The Sabres’ metrics may not show it right now, but this is a team that is on their way up (and they are pretty fun too):
Tage Thompson: Shootout Wizard
In case you haven’t noticed, Tage Thompson has been virtually unstoppable in the shootout this season. He has converted on 4 of 5 attempts this season and 6 of 10 attempts in his NHL career.
Thompson’s 60% career shootout scoring rate is very impressive, especially when the league-wide rate tends to hover around the 30-35% range.
In fact, there are only two NHLers (minimum of 10 shootout attempts) with a better career shootout conversion rate than him: Petteri Nummelin (8/10; 80%) and Artemi Panarin (19/31; 61.3%).
Looks like the Sabres may have found their new Ales Kotalik.
Prospects Update: College Hockey SZN
The NCAA Men’s Hockey Tournament kicked off last weekend and I think it’s some of the most underrated hockey around. Especially since this year’s edition feature all six Sabres prospects playing in the NCAA.
Two of the six prospects were sent home early:
Matteo Costantini and his North Dakota squad were sent home in the 1st round after a 2-1 overtime loss to Notre Dame. Costantini finished his freshman campaign with a solid stat line of 21 points in 35 games.
Devon Levi had his historic goaltending campaign come to an end. He stopped 34 of 36 shots in Northeastern’s heartbreaking 2-1 loss in overtime to Western Michigan. Levi looked to have made the save of the year after misplaying the puck, but video review revealed that the puck had crossed the goal line:
#LeviWatch is certainly on as the Sabres look to sign the sophomore goaltender acquired in the Sam Reinhart trade. According to Jeff Marek of Sportsnet, the Sabres are still awaiting his decision of whether to turn pro or return to college for another season.
Then there were four Sabres prospects who won both of their games last weekend and have won the right to battle it out in the Frozen Four next weekend.
Ryan Johnson, Aaron Huglen, and the Minnesota Golden Gophers will take on the Minnesota State Mavericks on April 7th while Owen Power, Erik Portillo, and the Michigan Wolverines take on the Denver Pioneers in the other match.
Could we see a battle of the Sabres prospects in the National Championship? Possibly.
Also, Aaron Huglen (#7) has been sneakily fun to watch these past few games. Don’t sleep on the 2019 4th round pick:
Game Preview: Winnipeg Jets @ Buffalo Sabres, 3/30/22
Fun Fact: A Buffalo sports team has not lost to a team named the Jets since 2020
Jets By The Numbers
Record: 32-25-10 (74 points) | Division: 6th | League: 18th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 48.7% (18th in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 48.9% (20th in the NHL)
Scouting the Jets
Winning on Entries: according to Corey Sznajder’s tracking data, the Sabres and Jets give up the most entires leading to chances against in the NHL. Look for both teams to try to take advantage of this
Find the Center Lane: the Jets weak spot all season has been preventing danger from entering their center lane. The Sabres need to find a way to exploit that weakness
Players to Watch
Rasmus Dahlin (BUF): this guy just played his best game of the season on Monday night, picking up 2 assists on 26+ minutes of ice time all while posting an incredible 93.5 xGF% at 5v5. Let’s see if he can continue to access his rediscovered swagger.
Kyle Connor (WPG): if the Sabres aren’t careful, a player like Connor can really take advantage of their neutral zone defense with his quick-attack style. He’s got 82 points in 67 games this season, a pure offensive talent.
The Week Ahead
Friday, April 1: vs. Nashville (RJ Night), 7 PM ET (TV: MSG)
Sunday, March 3: vs. Florida, 1 PM ET (TV: MSG)