Taged and Confused
The big man is scoring, the Sabres are playing well, but the wins aren't coming
The Sabres are currently riding a 5-game losing streak and the entirety of Buffalo sports may very well be cursed
By the Numbers đ
Record: 7-8-0 (14 points) | Division: 7th | League: 24th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 50.5% (14th in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 47.8% (22nd in the NHL)
Quick Hits
Jack Quinn undergoing evaluation for an undisclosed injury, expected to be out this week
Henri Jokiharju has been cleared to return to the Sabres lineup; could play Tuesday
Kyle Okposo remains day-to-day
Kale Clague has been loaned to the Rochester Americans (AHL)
Tage Thomspon: Finding the next level
A lot of talk around the Tage Thompson contract extension this offseason was based on his potential to replicate his 39-goal campaign from 2021/22; an obvious question for any player who sees a 30-goal uptick in their totals.
After a quiet first few games, Tage has been on an absolute tear. He has recorded 16 points (10 goals and 6 assists) in his last 8 games.
His goals have been beautiful, a lot of them have fully leveraged his unique combination of a 6â7â frame with skill:
The question surrounding Tage Thompsonâs game was never really if he can find that ânext levelâ of play. The question was if he could keep that level of play. Most were satisfied with an 8-goal player turning into a 38-goal scorer overnight.
However, there are some promising 5v5 numbers from Tage this season that signal some more 5v5 scoring improvements this season.
Here is a quick look at his individual 5v5 numbers this season:
Tage Thompson is scoring a lot of goals while getting off a ton of shots and generating great expected danger. So even if his shooting percentage were to drop to below expected, he would still be able to score goals at a fairly decent clip. Heâs not over-reliant on his shot, heâs actually getting to the scoring areas at a great clip.
His shots are even more dangerous than the 2021/22 season that saw him record 24 5v5 goals. His xFSh% (measures a playerâs expected unblocked shooting percentage based on location of unblocked shots) has jumped from 6.1% to 9.1% this season.
Of the 19 NHLers with at least 15 unblocked shot attempts per 60 at 5v5 this season (Tage Thompson being one of them), only Sam Bennett has a higher xFSh% than Tage.
Tage Thompson is looking like a unicorn to start this season.
A 6â7â forward with skill who can finish his shots. One who has been getting off shots at an obscene rate from dangerous areas of the ice. Most signals point towards an even more productive season in 2022/23 â which is just amazing.
Power-Dahlin: The question of talent distribution
The Sabres practice lines have dropped and it appears that the coaching staff is keeping the Power-Dahlin pair together that was used during Saturdayâs match:
This is a pair that has been used situationally by Don Granato throughout Owen Powerâs time in Buffalo, but this is the first we have been seeing of this pair as a full-game item.
While seemingly great on paper, I see a few issues with this pair:
The first being workload distribution. Itâs pretty clear that the coaching staff leans heavily upon these two defensemen. When placed on the same pair, they see even more ice time. Dahlin saw 28:08 and Power saw 29:35 against Boston on Saturday. How sustainable is that over a long season?
The second being talent distribution. The key advantage of having two very good defensemen is being able to run them on two separate pairs. Running these players on two pairs allows you to have at least one of these guys out there for around 80% of 5v5 ice time. On one pair? You are looking at closer to 50% of 5v5 ice time.
The last being the law of diminishing returns. Dahlin is good at hockey. Power is good at hockey. Adding them both to the same pair can only increase their overall on-ice impacts by so much. They can individually improve play more on a pair with Jacob Bryson or Lawrence Pilut, where their individual positive impacts can also be spread across more ice time.
Down on the Farm: Cederqvist, Kisakov heating up
The Rochester Americans went 1-0-2 during their last 3-game stretch. They recorded a 3-1 win over the Syracuse Crunch, following that up with a 6-5 overtime loss to the Cleveland Monsters and a 3-2 shootout loss to the Belleville Senators.
The Amerks have a 7-4-1 record on the season and currently sit in 2nd place in the AHLâs North Division.
Aleksandr Kisakov recorded his 1st-career AHL point on Friday. This opened the point-scoring dam for him as he now has 3 in his last two games:
Filip Cederqvist has been heating up as well. The Swedish AHL rookie has 4 points in his last 2 games. Heâs shown some strong net-front presence and used that to get his name on the scoresheet:
Game Preview: Canucks @ Sabres, 11/15/22, 7:00 PM ET
The Sabres look to turn things around at home against a team they have already beaten once this season.
Taking a look at the BetStamp app, there are some nice value plays for the Sabres.
They are +220 to win by two goals on BetRivers.
Canucks by the Numbers đ
Record: 4-9-3 (11 points) | Division: 7th | League: 30th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 46.0% (25th in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 48.7% (20th in the NHL)
Scouting the Canucks
Dangerous Power Play: their 5v5 play may be mediocre, but their power play ranks 5th in Goals/60 this season. That top unit will make you pay
Leagueâs Worst Penalty Kill: while their power play may be high-end, their penalty kill has been the worst in the league (14.1 Goals Against/60) thanks to some awful shorthanded goaltending (.714 SV%)
Players to Watch
Tage Thompson (BUF): he has officially been âthe guyâ to watch for the Sabres these past few games. Thompson is riding a 3-game goal streak and 4-game point streak heading into tonightâs match
Andrei Kuzmenko (VAN): I thought Kuzmenko was the most fun player on the ice during the Sabres last matchup against the Canucks. He was surprisingly a scratch in Vancouverâs last game, so the newly-signed free agent should be motivated tonight