Tage Thomspon has 10 goals and 5 assists in 21 games.
I certainly never expected to type of those words, at least not when referring to his production at the NHL level.
And how about Jack Quinn? 24 points in 17 AHL games, good enough to lead the league in points at just 20 years old.
A Sabres season that was defined by its low expectations has become something that is weirdly amusing. Sure the wins are not coming in bunches, but this 2021/22 Sabres team just has a charming aura surrounding it.
By the Numbers
Record: 8-10-3 | Division: 6th | League: 25th
(5v5 xGF%) 5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage: 45.6% (28th in the NHL)
(5v5 GF%) 5v5 Goals-For Percentage: 46.0% (24th in the NHL)
Quick Hits
Buffalo Sabres sign Mark Jankowski to a 1-year, $750k deal
Arttu Ruotsalainen assigned to the Rochester Americans
Casey Mittelstadt returns to the ice, no longer wearing a non-contact jersey during practice
Alex Tuch skates in his first practice as a member of the Sabres
Tage Thompson: Is he the real deal?
It’s no secret that Tage Thompson’s start to his Sabres career was rocky, very rocky. His 2018/19 campaign saw him finish in the 0.5th percentile of all NHLers in Evolving-Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement (GAR) metric. Only 4 players were worse!
The 2019/20 season saw Tage start and thrive in Rochester, unfortunately he suffered a season-ending injury in his only appearance in Buffalo. 2020/21 was just more of the same at the NHL level: 3.9th percentile in GAR, mediocre production, and some boneheaded plays.
The 10-goals-in-21-games Tage Thompson we have seen in 2021/22 just looks different, both on paper and on the ice. Sure, there may be some luck involved. Only eight players have outproduced their expected goals more than him this season:
Tage is not a player who traditionally outproduces his expected production. He had 18 goals on 23.3 expected goals in his previous four seasons compared to 10 goals on 5.1 expected goals this season. Will his shooting regress? Yes, but there have been some other juicy parts to his game.
A player who once brought a (very) negative impact to both sides of the ice is now a positive impact player. He did this all while switching from the wing to the center position. In fact, he’s centered the Sabres top two lines in terms of expected goal share this season.
So while luck has been on Tage’s side this season (who knows, maybe he was a little unlucky with his shooting before), his expected results have been solid. The progress he has made this season is nearly unprecedented.
No, Tage Thompson won’t become a perennial 40-goal scorer, but it looks like the Sabres have a useful NHLer on their hand. That’s much more than they could say last spring.
Mark Pysyk Appreciation Post
One of the more underrated moves the Sabres made this offseason was the acquisition of Mark Pysyk. It’s been great to see him back in the blue and gold as he’s been a real stabilizing force on that blueline.
Let’s just check in on some of the numbers:
10th in Defensive Goals Above Replacement in the NHL
5th in xGA/60 (Expected Goals Against) on Buffalo
While the defensive play has been the most talked about part of his game this season, he carries over his skill and play-reading ability over to the offensive side of the puck as well. Watch as he (#13) swaps spots with Anders Bjork and produces a high-danger pass to Zemgus Girgensons:
Truly a “Swiss Army knife” of a defenseman, it’s hard to fathom how he only has a $900k cap hit in such a bullish right-handed defensemen market. Is it too early to start the #ExtendMarkPysyk campaign?
The Kids Are Alright
What a weekend it was for the young ones down in Rochester:
Jack Quinn: 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points in 2 games
Peyton Krebs: 4 assists, 4 points in 2 games
JJ Peterka: 3 assists, 3 points in 2 games
I mean just look at this beautiful play: JJ Peterka with a hard-earned zone entry, curls back, and perfectly times the pass to Jack Quinn who uses that high-end finishing ability. Pure art:
Jack Quinn leads the AHL in points with 24 in 17 games. Only one player since 2008 has put up more than a point-per-game in the AHL in their DY+2 season (Trevor Zegras).
JJ Peterka has 18 points in 17 games (and is still eligible for the World Juniors!). The elements he has added to his game are quite remarkable and his chemistry with Quinn has been impressive.
Peyton Krebs, the pièce de résistance of the Eichel return, has quietly strung together some nice performances. His playmaking ability is undeniable and gives him great projectability at the NHL level. Expect the numbers to start piling up for him sooner rather than later.
Anybody else getting ‘04 Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville, and Derek Roy vibes from this trio?
An Era to Forget
As Sabres fans, we often like to forget our past, but sometimes it’s just better to look back it and laugh. Oh, what a weekend it was for Tim Murray acquisitions:
Game Preview: Seattle Kraken @ Buffalo Sabres 11/29/21
The Seattle Kraken visit the Buffalo Sabres for the first time in their franchise’s existence, so I guess you can say you witnessed history if you go to the game tonight
Kraken by the Numbers
Record: 7-13-1 | Division: 7th | League: 27th
(5v5 xGF%) 5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage: 48.9% (19th in the NHL)
(5v5 GF%) 5v5 Goals-For Percentage: 38.6% (31st in the NHL)
Scouting the Kraken
Goaltending Woes: the Kraken goaltenders have allowed more goals than expected than any other NHL team (yes, even the Coyotes). Philipp Grubauer has been awful while Chris Driedger and Joey Daccord have not offered much help
Low-Event Hockey: the Kraken play a similar low-event style as the Sabres, it just turns into high-event hockey due to bad goaltending. High-event hockey due to bad goaltending is a lot of fun (as long as your goalie is the less bad one)
Lack of High-End Talent: this Kraken squad is one that lacks a high-end talent (once again, similar to the Sabres), they rely on their depth to be effective. They just have a lot of solid hockey players on their team
Players to Watch
Tage Thompson (BUF): is there any better answer at this point? Let’s see if Tage can continue this hot shooting stretch into the next week. Maybe he finishes off a fancy toe-drag goal just for fun or maybe he goes bar down a few times
Jordan Eberle (SEA): dust off your 2010 Team Canada World Juniors jersey because Eberle has been a lot of fun to watch this season on a team that is not exactly known for their “electric” play. He scored a hat trick his last time out against the Sabres and is coming off a 2-goal performance vs. the Panthers on Saturday
The Week Ahead
Monday, November 29: vs. Seattle, 7 PM ET (TV: MSG)
Thursday, December 2: @ Florida, 7 PM ET, (TV: MSG)
Saturday, December 4 @ Carolina, 7:30 PM ET, (TV: MSG)