Just when you thought it was time to cut the Buffalo Sabres out of your life this March, they reel you back in with two big wins
By the Numbers đ
Record: 33-28-6 (72 points) | Division: 5th | League: 20th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 48.7% (22nd in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 48.2% (21st in the NHL)
Quick Hits
The Buffalo Sabres re-call forward Lukas Rousek from the Rochester Americans (AHL) with Tage Thompson being a game-time decision with an upper body injury
Jordan Greenway and Mattias Samuelsson remain out of the Sabresâ lineup with upper body injuries; Craig Anderson is out due to maintenance
Itâs getting better all the time
I did some digging this morning on the Sabres expected numbers at 5v5 as of late and came away pleasantly surprised:
The underlying numbers at 5v5 for this hockey club have improved after that 10-4 drubbing to the hands of the Dallas Stars. There may have been a 7-0 loss to the Boston Bruins and a 7-3 loss to the Nashville Predators mixed into those 8 games⊠However, the groundwork has been planted for this team to play winning hockey and the sun will shine through eventually. Just look at their last two wins.
The thing that has been sinking their ship at 5v5? Good old PDO, a very simple stat that combines a teamâs save percentage (âdefenseâ) and shooting percentage (âoffenseâ). In theory, this number should be at 1.00 on average. So a .920 SV% combine with an 8% shooting percentage would be 1.00.
If a team is running well above that 1.00 line they are considered âluckyâ and if they are running well below that line they are considered âunlucky.â Once again, very unscientific and simple which is why I include some words in quotation marks.
The Sabres are rocking a .94 PDO (7.9 Sh% and .861 SV%) in their last 8 games. That ranks 29th in the NHL in that 8-game stretch. In the previous 64 games, the Sabres had a completely average 1.00 PDO (9.5 Sh% and .905 SV%).
Public perception of a teamâs future success is largely built upon wins and losses, which is determined by goals and goals against, which is determined by shooting percentage and save percentage.
So, despite the Sabres playing much improved hockey down the stretch, they have very little to show for it in the standings due to some poor goaltending, poor finishing ability, and just downright bad luck.
These last 10 games to close out the season will be interesting to follow. We will see if the Sabres can continue to improve on both sides of the puck and build momentum they can carry into next season (or maybe even this seasonâs playoffs).
Devon Levi: The Waiting Game
Devon Levi gave just about the most hockey goalie response you can give when asked about having to sit out practice the past few days due to immigration:
Levi was finally able to get on the ice with the main squad this past Friday. With the team not holding practice on Sunday, itâs unlikely that we see him make his NHL debut against his hometown Montreal Canadiens on Monday.
The Sabres goaltending situation is interesting right now, but when is it not?
Eric Comrie just posted a shutout after allowing 10 goals against in his previous start. UPL gave up 7 against Boston, gave up 0 in relief against Nashville, then had an alright performance where he gave up 4 in a win against New Jersey. Craig Anderson has been olâ reliable all season but has given up 11 goals on his last 42 shots.
Mix in the fact that the Sabres are still loosely in the playoff race and you get yourself a confusing picture of what these goaltending starts will look like these final 10 games. I guess we will just have to see how things play out down the stretch.
Prospects Update: College hockey news
Ryan Johnson, Aaron Huglen, and the top ranked Minnesota Golden Gophers are on their way to the Frozen Four after a 9-2 win over Canisius and a 4-1 win over St. Cloud State this past week. Huglen scored this goal in Thursdayâs win:
Sabresâ 2020 5th round pick Matteo Costantini has entered the transfer portal after struggling to find ice time at the University of North Dakota this season. The forward only had 3 points in 35 games in his sophomore campaign after a freshman campaign that saw him record 21 points in 35 games:
Speaking of the University of North Dakota, the Sabres appear to be in agreement to sign one of their defensemen, Chris Jandric. The 24 year old played in 39 games this past season, recording 33 points. He led the team in plus/minus at +16 with the next closest player being a +8. Jandric is an aggressive smaller defenseman who should be a great piece for Rochester:
Game Preview: Canadiens @ Sabres, 3/27/23, 7:00 PM ET
Sabres host the Canadiens on Monday night for the teamâs annual Pride Night celebration
Canadiens by the Numbers đ
Record: 29-38-6 (64 points) | Division: 8th | League: 28th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 43.9% (29th in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 45.9% (26th in the NHL)
Scouting the Canadiens
Trap Game: the playoff stretch has been a frustrating one for the Sabres because they have seemingly lost every game they have played against teams in the bottom of the standings as of late. Just relax and win the hockey game
Track Meet: both teams rely on their rush offense to score goals, itâs one of the reasons why both team are among the top of the league in shooting percentage. Also, neither team is great at defending the rush. The Sabres have a more refined offense so they need to bring it early against this Habs team to avoid falling behind on the scoreboard
Players to Watch
RafaĂ«l Harvey-Pinard (MTL): Harvey-Pinard scored a hat trick in one period in Montrealâs 8-2 win over Columbus on Saturday. The rookie has 12 goals in 29 NHL games this season
The Kids Line (BUF): I did not want to just put one name here, so I am going to go with all three of Dylan Cozens, Jack Quinn, and JJ Peterka. This kids line is back and they are dangerous, even against good rush defending teams like NJ. The Sabres are a scary sight when they can get multiple lines rolling on offense