Who would stop more shots: the Sabres goaltenders or a shooter tutor?
Well, until we see the shooter tutor play in an NHL game, do we really know the answer to that? I’m just kidding. Actually, maybe I’m not kidding.
The Sabres gave up 20 goals (!) over their three games last week and are scrambling to find an answer, or at least a stop gap, in net as they remain without their top two goaltenders.
By the Numbers
Record: 8-13-3 (19 points) | Division: 6th | League: 26th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 45.7% (27th in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 44.0% (26th in the NHL)
Sabres’ goaltending: It’s a problem
After this past week, it’s pretty apparent that the Sabres have a goaltending problem. Coming into the season, they planned on having a tandem of Craig Anderson and Dustin Tokarski in net. Was it concerning? Absolutely, but that duo has been fine. Not good, but fine.
Unfortunately, an injury would take out Craig Anderson, whose recovery time is now listed as month-to-month. A positive COVID test would take out Dustin Tokarski on Tuesday after a very poor showing against Seattle on Monday (6 goals against on 31 shots).
Aaron Dell was handed the reins as the starter on Thursday vs. Florida and was shellacked with 45 shots, allowing goals on 5 of them. We even had a goalie trade too! Buffalo would receive Malcolm Subban from Chicago for future considerations.
Subban would play Saturday night, allowing 6 goals on 25 shots before leaving with an injury. It was a very underwhelming debut.
The Sabres goaltenders provided them with an .822 save percentage last week. They allowed 17 goals on 9.64 expected goals against. It’s very difficult to win games when your team is giving up 6+ goals per game.
So what’s next? According to Elliotte Friedman, Buffalo has had talks with Dallas regarding Anton Khudobin. You may remember him as the backstop for the Stars during their run to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2020. However, father time has not treated the 35 year-old goaltender well:
Among the 50 NHL goaltenders with at least 7 games played this season, Khudobin ranks second to last in Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 (data via MoneyPuck). He is joined at the bottom of the list by two familiar names for Sabres fans: Aaron Dell and Jonas Johansson.
Would Khudobin be an upgrade on their current situation? Probably not, but the Sabres should be able to get him for free (a.k.a. future considerations), so maybe it’s worth a shot.
Goaltending is a problem and will likely be a problem for the remainder of the season. Fortunately, the Sabres are not a Cup contender whose season is being sunk by poor goaltending. That being said, it would be nice to create a developmental environment where the games are not over by the 2nd period.
The Jack Eichel power play without Jack Eichel
The Sabres power play has been bad this season. I do not think the issues with this power play have come to the forefront until recently as the hot shooting is drying up and the short-handed goals against have been plentiful.
It’s just been far too simple and predictable. On the viz below, areas where Sabres shoot the puck more than the league average are shaded in brown while the areas where their shot rate is below the league average are shaded in purple:
As you may gather from looking at the above, this is (very) bad. No pucks seem to make their way into the slot and the shots are relegated to low-danger areas at the point and on the flanks (the triangle of doom). This is why the Sabres power play is 31st in expected goals for per 60.
The Sabres still run the basic 1-3-1 power play, but without their biggest weapon from seasons past: Jack Eichel.
Image #1 (Power Play w/ Eichel):
Jack Eichel is a constant threat on the power play to either shoot, pass, or cut inside. He manipulates Dallas’ PK structure and hits Victor Olofsson on the weak-side with a cross-ice feed.
The pass is sent in the perfect spot for Olofsson to shoot and he has time and space with the opponent having to shift over. The goalie is caught out of position. End result is a goal.
Image #2 (Power Play w/o Eichel):
The 2021 version of this 1-3-1 power play is just sad. The puck only transfers in a triangle from the point to the flanks and back. There’s little-to-no manipulation or deception. It’s just easy to defend, especially for the goalie who doesn’t have to move all that much.
Take a look at where Olofsson receives the puck here. It comes in from over his shoulder which makes it difficult to receive-and-shoot. The D is caught out of place, but Olofsson has to collect the puck on backhand and the net lane is eventually clogged by the time he gets a shot off.
The 2021 version of the Sabres’ 1-3-1 has no creativity and no manipulation. Just reliance on off-balance shots from low danger areas with the same three players touching the puck.
World Juniors SZN is upon us
It’s almost here! It’s finally December, which means a number of the countries participating at the 2022 World Junior Championships have released their camp rosters for the upcoming tournament.
It’s no surprise that Owen Power was named to Canada’s camp roster (or maybe it is since Brandt Clarke wasn’t invited). He’s been having a fantastic season at the University of Michigan and is expected to be a key piece for the gold medal favorites.
Nikita Novikov was named to the Russian camp roster and I do expect him to make the final roster. He has gotten a chance to sharpen his game for Dynamo Moscow, one of the top teams in the KHL, and has gathered a decent amount of pro experience on the blueline despite being only 18 years old.
JJ Peterka will not be heading to the World Juniors to represent Germany (I almost forgot he was even eligible!). He will stay in Rochester and will likely be heading to the Olympics later this winter.
Sweden and the Czech Republic have yet to release their camp rosters, but expect Isak Rosén and Jakub Konečný to be named to their respective teams.
Speaking of Jakub Konečný, check out this awesome goal he scored in the Czech Extraliga last week. He draws the penalty and gets the goal anyways:
Devon Levi: Can we sign him right now?
Well, the Sabres goaltending situation isn’t all bleak because the future is looking very bright. Devon Levi appeared in two games for #16 Northeastern this weekend as they took on #13 Providence and he stopped 71 of 72 shots.
He’s up to a .955 SV% across 18 starts this season. That’s the top save percentage in the NCAA by a pretty fair margin. Just pure insanity.
Game Preview: Anaheim Ducks @ Buffalo Sabres, 12/7/21
The better-than-expected Anaheim Ducks come into Buffalo to play the Sabres on Tuesday. Can the Sabres finally put an end to their losing streak?
Ducks by the Numbers
Record: 13-8-4 (30 points) | Division: 3rd | League: 10th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 50.5% (12th in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 50.0% (15th in the NHL)
Scouting the Ducks
Unexpected offense: the Ducks emergence this season is largely due to what players like Troy Terry and Sonny Milano have been able to do offensively. Those two guys probably weren’t on a lot of fantasy teams in October.
The Trevor Zegras Show: it’s truly been a joy to watch Zegras become more comfortable at the NHL level. He’s extremely talented and can pull off some very slick (and effective) moves at full speed. Keep an eye on him.
Players to Watch
Whoever is in net (BUF): the Sabres just need some saves to have a shot at winning any of these games. Now that they find themselves in the depths of their depth chart, they need to hope and pray that their goaltending is just ok. I mean I would take just plain, old “bad” goaltending over the extremely awful goaltending they have been getting.
Troy Terry (ANA): I think I just have to go with Terry here. He has 25 points in 24 games this season and ranks 11th among skaters this season in Evolving-Hockey’s GAR model. He’s just a very smart and good hockey player who was a bit underrated before his breakout season this year.
The Week Ahead
Tuesday, December 7: vs. Anaheim, 7 PM ET (TV: ESPN+/Hulu)
Friday, December 10: vs. NY Rangers, 7 PM ET (TV: MSG)
Saturday, December 11: vs. Washington, 7 PM ET (TV: MSG)