Sabres 2024 WJC Day 3, 4, 5, and 6 Recap
Östlund and Kulich scoring; Štrbák thriving; Savoie injured
It’s difficult to believe that we are already at the end of the preliminary round of the World Juniors. Noah Östlund, Anton Wahlberg, and the Swedes topped Group A while the Americans finished atop Group B.
Six of the Sabres’ seven prospects at the event have advanced to the quarterfinals with Norwin Panocha and the Germans taking on Norway in the relegation round.
So let’s dive into how the Sabres prospects have performed over the last few days:
Jiri Kulich, RW (CZE #25)
vs. USA: 20:40 TOI, +0, 4 SOG, 0.31 5v5 xP1
vs. SUI: 19:23 TOI, 1 G, 1 A, 2 PTS, +1, 5 SOG, 0.96 5v5 xP1
There’s one definitive statement that you can make about Jiri Kulich’s game: he can score goals. He’s got 4 already this World Juniors and has 16 goals in the AHL. Whenever he is on the ice, he’s a consistent threat to capitalize on another team’s mistake with his finishing ability.
The Czechia team this World Juniors has been a bit of a mess despite a near victory over Team USA. They lack the depth of their 2023 silver medal-winning squad and even their top line has failed to generate consistent offense. There’s a lot more pressure on Kulich to be “the guy” this time around and his opponents have been aware of that.
Jiri Kulich and his linemates did generate much volume on offense at 5v5 against the Americans. Czechia really struggled to generate offense in transition and a lot of what they did create was through broken plays.
There was one play where Kulich managed to find soft ice in the slot and nearly converted on a grade A chance:
Kulich really didn’t generate much on the power play this game either. He has been a major shooting threat from the flanks at every level, but Team USA was sure to keep a close eye on him and really clogged the shooting lanes in his area of the ice.
Kulich managed to score a beauty in his first shootout attempt (Ales Kotalik vibes), but was denied on his second attempt (shooters can go twice after their team’s first five attempts in IIHF hockey):
Czechia bounced back after their shootout loss to the US with a 4-2 win over Switzerland in their final preliminary round game. Jiri Kulich created a lot of danger with his shot this game with 4 scoring chances and 0.89 ixG at 5v5, the most of any forward in the game.
Kulich managed to record a goal and assist in the Czechia win over Switzerland:
Once again, this Czechia team is not as deep as last year’s group that won the silver medal. Kulich is going to have to step up in a major way if his team wants to compete for a gold medal. He’s going to have to capitalize on all of his chances and create more for others to have a fighting chance.
Matthew Savoie, RW (CAN #26)
vs. SWE: 16:28 TOI, -1, 3 SOG, 0.82 5v5 xP1
vs. GER: Did not play (injured)
This tournament has not exactly gone how Matthew Savoie (or Team Canada for that matter) has expected it to go. Savoie only has 1 point (a secondary assist) in 3 games thus far and suffered a lower body injury that kept him out of the New Year’s Eve match vs. Germany.
Luckily, Savoie did return sooner than expected and is back in the lineup for the quarterfinal round — but we’ll hit on that game in the next newsletter.
For today, let’s talk about his last game prior to his injury (Canada’s 2-0 loss to Sweden) where Savoie was probably Canada’s best forward. No points, obviously, but he generated 0.82 expected primary points at evens. No other Canadian had more than 0.47 5v5 xP1 that game (Fraser Minten).
Here’s a clip of some of Savoie’s chances vs. Sweden. Lots of high quality stuff here. Extremely dangerous off the rush, attacking inside, creating chances. It has just been a finishing problem for him so far and a lot of that boils down to unluckiness:
Noah Östlund, C (SWE #12)
vs. GER: 16:16 TOI, 1 G, 1 PT, +1, 3 SOG, 0.49 5v5 xP1
vs. CAN: 19:55 TOI, 1 G, 1 PT, +1, 2 SOG, 0.50 5v5 xP1
vs. FIN: 23:14 TOI, 2 A, 2 PTS, +0, 2 SOG, 0.91 5v5 xP1
Anton Wahlberg, LW (SWE #22)
vs. GER: 16:14 TOI, +1, 2 SOG, 0.40 5v5 xP1
vs. CAN: 18:04 TOI, +1, 2 SOG, 0.09 5v5 xP1
vs. FIN: 18:40 TOI, +1, 4 SOG, 0.08 5v5 xP1
In my opening World Juniors recap I said that Noah Östlund is a future NHLer, it’s just a question of how good he can be. With each passing game, I’m more and more confident that Östlund can be a really good NHLer.
As the tournament has gone on, he has gotten more confident with the puck. Rather than being a pure puck support piece he has become more of a creator. He’s not afraid to use his great stick skills to cut inside to activate dangerous areas of the ice. He’s able to pick out teammates with passes through traffic.
Östlund is good in all phases of the game as well. He’s a player you want out there if you need a goal or if you want to protect a lead. In my opinion, he has been the best Sabres prospect at the 2024 World Juniors so far.
Anton Wahlberg has played almost all of his minutes alongside Noah Östlund as they are on the same line and power play. But Wahlberg hasn’t produced much offense as he has been relegated to more of a “banger” role on Sweden’s top line.
Carry the puck into the zone with speed, screen the goalie in front of the net, use the body to win pucks along the boards has been the theme to his game in this tournament. Has not been pretty for his individual stats, but Wahlberg has been playing a game that works in the context of the team.
The Sabres duo have developed a decent amount of chemistry so far, here’s some sequences with the two:
Now let’s dive into some Östlund clips, here are two dangerous chances he had for himself against Germany:
Then Östlund finally converts on a chance for a goal in the 3rd period:
Noah Östlund recorded a goal in his game vs. Canada as well. A massive goal to put the Swedes up 2-0 in the 2nd period. Just check out the sequence before he scores here. He hangs onto the puck and creates absolute chaos before forcing a turnover and capitalizing on a chance of his own just a few seconds later:
The Swedes followed a major 2-0 win over Canada with a 5-4 shootout loss to Finland. Östlund still had a stellar game in the loss, picking up two assists and leading the Swedes in 5v5 expected points.
He had yet another fun offensive zone sequence with lots of inside cuts that eventually led to another point:
Then Östlund had a crazy shift in the third period where he completely took over. He made the Finnish players miss as he takes the puck inside. He picks out teammates through traffic, setting them up with clean shooting opportunities. No points here, but an incredible shift nonetheless:
Noah Östlund is going to be a key player down the stretch for the hosting Swedish team. It’s going be very fun to see if he can help lead his country to a gold medal. Anton Wahlberg is also due for a greasy net front goal or even a stunning goal off of a rush opportunity. The flashes have been there in his game.
Maxim Štrbák, D (SVK #4)
vs. NOR: 22:36 TOI, 3 A, 3 PTS, +1, 4 SOG, 0.45 5v5 xP1
vs. USA: 22:26 TOI, -3, 2 SOG, 0.09 5v5 xP1
In terms of offense, Maxim Štrbák is a very interesting prospect. He kicked of his 2021/22 season with 3 points in 5 games for Slovakia U18 team at the Hlinka tournament. He then went on to score only 8 points in 39 games in the Finnish junior league.
Štrbák recorded 18 points in 46 games for Sioux Falls of the USHL in his draft year last season. Low totals for a projected early 2nd round pick. But he went on to record 6 points in 7 games for Slovakia at the U18 World Juniors than same season.
This season? He has 5 points in 15 games as a freshman at Michigan State. He has 6 points in 4 games for Slovakia at the World Juniors so far. No defenseman has more points than him so far this tournament.
With increased responsibility comes increased opportunity and Štrbák has taken full advantage of being the top guy on a talented Slovak team with a shallow blueline. He’s just an easy, versatile player to play with. A coach’s dream.
He had his typical Štrbák Slovakia game against Norway where he recorded 3 points on 8 Slovak goals. Here’s a clip of his points from that game:
Slovakia got trounced by USA, 10-3. The game was 3-2 with just a few minutes left in the 2nd period, but then things started to get ugly for the Slovaks.
Team USA was easily the most talented team Slovakia has played this tournament and it was certainly a test for Štrbák. The Americans forced turnovers, were hard on pucks, took away time/space, and really just had that overall talent level to capitalize on every opportunity in the final third of the ice.
There were still flashes of the Štrbák we have seen: wiping out opponents along the boards to win possession, stripping pucks on the PK, and stepping down from the point for a little give-and-go:
However things were obviously tougher for the entire Slovakian team this game. Here is Gavin Brindley forcing a turnover to score the shorthanded goal. Štrbák gets caught flat-footed here as Brindley was unafraid to take things to the paint rather than dump it in:
Norwin Panocha, D (GER #28)
vs. SWE: 17:49 TOI, -2, 0 SOG, 0.02 5v5 xP1
vs. LAT: 15:05 TOI, 1 G, 1 PT, +1, 1 SOG, 0.22 5v5 xP1
vs. CAN: 17:43 TOI, -1, 1 SOG, 0.36 5v5 xP1
Germany had a promising start after an upset victory over Finland, they even kept things somewhat close in a 6-0 loss to Sweden. However, a 6-2 loss to Latvia put them in the hole and they failed to pick up a point in their 6-3 loss to Canada. Strong preliminary round for Team Germany, but Latvia sneaks into the quarterfinals via a tiebreaker.
Germany will take on Norway in the relegation battle to see who Kazakhstan will replace in the next edition of the World Juniors. The Norwegians have two potential 2024 1st round picks, so it should make for some interesting hockey.
Panocha has been providing the Germans with steady minutes on the second pair. He even picked up his first goal and his only point of the tournament:
Scott Ratzlaff, G (CAN #1)
vs. SWE: Did not dress
vs. GER: Did not dress
Scott Ratzlaff has been the third goalie for Canada throughout the tournament and it looks like it will continue that way. He could potentially see a larger role in next year’s event.
Stats from IIHF; tracking data from Mitchell Brown and Lassi Alanen