The Buffalo Bills have advanced to the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs!
And the Buffalo Sabres have been, well, the Buffalo Sabres.
One win, two regulation losses, and one overtime loss over their past four. Better than usual, but still overwhelmingly mediocre.
At the end of the day, it’s a rebuild where this stuff is supposed to happen. However, rebuild fatigue is real and it is something many Sabres fans are beginning to experience.
By the Numbers 📊
Record: 11-20-7 (29 points) | Division: 6th | League: 28th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 44.1% (31st in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 42.6% (28th in the NHL)
Quick Hits
Zemgus Girgensons, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, and Colin Miller were placed on the Injured Reserve on Monday
Vinnie Hinostroza (injury) and Tage Thompson (COVID travel protocols) are out vs. the Senators
The Dog Days of the Rebuild: A familiar place
I always like to say that the best part of the rebuild is the offseason. The NHL Draft comes around, the young assets accumulate, and the future almost always seems bright.
The worst part of the rebuild? I’d say mid-season. Those once fresh faces become boringly familiar. Injuries reveal a lack of substantial depth. The losses begin to pile up at an alarming rate. It’s just the cost of doing business as a rebuilding NHL team.
Last week, Don Granato shared his thoughts on the grind of a rebuild:
Patience. That is going to be the key virtue for this front office and coaching staff as they continue to rebuild this Sabres team.
What about the fans? I think most fans understand that patience throughout this rebuild is decidedly the right move. It’s not easy to build an NHL team, especially after the complete burning down of the old core.
However, these fans have been dragged through bad season after bad season. They built up their hope in this organization just to have it crumble in front of their own eyes time and time again. The wounds from the previous regime(s) are still felt.
There probably won’t be the worst spot in this current rebuild than right now.
The young guys are still a bit too raw to be substantial contributors. The prospect pool is still a bit on the lighter end compared to where it will be in 2023. The team just straight up is not talented enough to be entertaining on a nightly basis.
It’s difficult to use the phrase “trust the process” when the fans’ trust has been broken so many times.
But with the creation of an NHL-caliber analytics department, a head coach with a good head on their shoulders, and a prospect pool that does not just excel in quality but quantity, I think many fans may be slowly warming up to the idea of “trusting the process” once again.
Dylan Cozens: the Gentile Giant
As we talked about in last week’s edition of The Charge, Dylan Cozens’ transition game in the NHL is truly something else. I think Corey Sznajder describes it perfectly here:
I just love this zone exit and entry sequence from Cozens during the Sabres recent game against the Predators. Sprints up the ice with reckless abandon, seemingly on a crash course towards the opposing defender. Cuts back, seals the defender off, and sneaks a pass through the oncoming Preds player:
He’s big, he’s fast, but he has just enough finesse in his game to be a quality transition player. What appears reckless on the surface is oftentimes controlled and calculated with him.
Jeff Skinner Appreciation Post
Since the last edition of The Charge, Jeff Skinner has recorded 3 goals and an assist over 4 games. When his scoring touch is on, it’s on. He’s on pace for a very cool 32 goals on a Sabres team that has struggled to produce much of anything offensively.
The way he attacks the offensive zone with his footwork is just so unique. It’s a shame that this guy has been stuck on underperforming teams for his entire NHL career:
Under my umbrella
If you watched the Sabres game on Monday, you may have noticed that the Sabres’ power play set up looked a little different than their traditional 1-3-1 from earlier in the season:
This power play setup is called the “umbrella” due to its shape. This graphic from CrossIce Hockey helps illustrate what this setup looks like via an overhead view:
This power play allows for some more movement between the players in 4/5 spots and the 1/2/3 spots than the traditional power play setup typically allows. It also helps create some high danger 2v1 action down low:
Jack Quinn’s AHL dominance continues
Jack Quinn finally got to make his NHL debut! Unfortunately, it was in a game where the Sabres were severely outmatched by an elite Lightning squad. Nonetheless, he still showed off some of his positive traits despite limited opportunities.
Once some Sabres injuries cleared up, he was sent back down to Rochester where he has been killing it with 8 points in his last 3 games.
Oh and here’s another cool thing: a list of the top U23 forwards in the AHL using Dom Luszczyszyn’s Game Score model on a per-game basis. Quinn is having himself a pretty outstanding season so far:
Quinn is slowly approaching the “too good to keep down in the AHL” territory. It will be interesting to see what the Sabres do with him as the season progresses.
Game Preview: Buffalo Sabres @ Ottawa Senators, 1/18/22
This would be a great matchup if it was 2006
Senators By The Numbers
Record: 11-18-2 (24 points) | Division: 7th | League: 30th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 46.0% (26th in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 45.8% (24th in the NHL)
Scouting the Senators
Glass and Out: the Senators love trying to create odd-man rushes in the neutral zone. They do this by quickly flipping the puck out of the zone over the forecheckers
High-Event Hockey: no team gives up more shot attempts against at 5v5 than the Sens
Players to Watch
Alex Tuch/Jeff Skinner (BUF): the combo of Alex Tuch and Jeff Skinner has really gelled. They have outscored opponents 4-1 at 5v5 (a good chunk of that is puck luck), but they have also managed a 48.6 xGF% together on a Sabres team that has been getting wrecked.
Tyler Ennis (OTT): yes, the Sabres legend is still playing in the NHL. He was even seeing some time on the Sens’ top line. It’s time to break out some of that Enzo Sauce