While one Buffalo sports team’s playoff hopes and dreams were dashed, another is making a push towards some postseason play
By the Numbers 📊
Record: 20-17-2 (42 points) | Division: 4th | League: 18th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 49.6% (21st in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 51.0% (17th in the NHL)
Quick Hits
Vinnie Hinostroza clears waivers and has been assigned to the Rochester Americans (AHL)
Playoffs?!
Is it too early to watch the standings with 35 regular season games left? Absolutely.
Am I going to do it anyways? Oh, you already know it.
It feels like it has been ages since any standings watch involving the Sabres was regarding the playoffs and not the NHL Draft. I mean the last time this team made it to the playoffs was in 2011, they are in the midst of the longest playoff drought in NHL history.
Well let’s get right into it, how likely is this Sabres team to make it to the playoffs?
The Buffalo Sabres sit just 3 points behind the Washington Capitals for the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference:
However, the Capitals have played 3 more games than the Sabres. If you break things down by point percentage, the Sabres just edge out the Capitals for that final spot (.564 to .560).
Vegas currently has the Sabres’ playoff odds sitting at +310, so roughly a 24.4% chance to make it to the playoffs without accounting for the house edge.
MoneyPuck’s model currently gives the Sabres a generous 42.3% chance to make it to the playoffs.
Micah Blake McCurdy’s model for his website HockeyViz has the Sabres currently sitting with a 22.3% chance to make it to the playoffs, fairly similar to the Vegas odds:
Another interesting chart provided by Micah here shows how likely the Sabres are to make it to the playoffs based on how many points they accumulate in their final 35 regular season games:
For the Sabres to be more likely to make it to the playoffs (greater than a 50% chance) than not, they will need to find a way to accumulate 41 or more points in their final 35 regular season games.
So we’re talking about a 19-13-3 record or an 18-12-5 record or whatever combination gets them to 41 points and the Sabres will be more likely to make the playoffs than to miss it according to this model.
If the Sabres find a way to get 44 points in their final 35 regular season games, their chances of a playoff spot shoot all the way up to 90%.
So, at the end of the day, the Sabres roughly have a 1-in-4 chance to make it to the playoffs this season. But this is most certainly a chance, a really big chance, when compared to seasons past. Not bad for the youngest roster in the NHL.
Tage Thompson the Playmaker (continued)
The main article in The Charge just a few weeks ago was about Tage Thompson adding a playmaking element to his game.
Well, you just have to love this look he was able to give Jeff Skinner on this goal vs. the St. Louis Blues on Tuesday:
With his size, puckhandling ability, and reputation, Thompson is going to be a player who draws the attention of virtually every opponent when he is on the ice. Quickly scanning for available options and space allows him to be that much more deadly on offense.
Owen Power: King of Off-Puck Movement
Owen Power was goal-less this season up until the last two games where he has goals in back-to-back games. The first being an OT winner against Dallas and the second being this goal against St. Louis where he was rewarded for his awesome off-puck route:
#25 does nothing but go from one side of the net front to the other. But by doing so in a roundabout way, he opens up space, allows the puck to switch sides, and beats the new man covering him to the net. He simply knows how to move to get pucks to the dangerous areas and he does not need the puck on his stick at all times to do so.
Game Preview: Sabres @ Jets, 1/26/23, 8:00 PM ET
Can the Buffalo Sabres extend their winning streak to five?
Jets by the Numbers 📊
Record: 31-17-1 (63 points) | Division: 2nd | League: 6th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 51.1% (19th in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 53.7% (9th in the NHL)
Scouting the Jets
High-Event Hockey: the Jets allow the 7th most Entries leading to Scoring Chances in the NHL. he Sabres are 3rd in Entries leading to Scoring Chances. It’s a good game to get the offense back on track
Solid Penalty Kill: Winnipeg’s penalty kill comes in 4th for xGA/60 and 3rd for GA/60. Their PKers don’t make life easy and their goaltending makes things even more difficult
Players to Watch
Dylan Cozens (BUF): I think he is due for a big game, especially against a Winnipeg Jets team that is not great against the rush. I really like the potential of the kids line during this matchup for that exact reason
Cole Perfetti (WPG): Perfetti is a member of the very fun 2020 NHL Draft class who simply needs to be talked about more. The 21-year-old has been seeing top-line minutes and has recorded a solid 29 points in 44 games this season