It has not been a great past few days for the Buffalo Sabres.
They dropped games to Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Arizona.
However, all hope should not be lost as there have been some very positive signs from the NHL’s youngest team.
By the Numbers 📊
Record: 7-6-0 (14 points) | Division: 6th | League: 17th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 50.6% (15th in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 53.3% (12th in the NHL)
Quick Hits
Henri Jokiharju returned to practice this morning.
Patience is Necessary
Yes, the Buffalo Sabres have just lost their last three games.
Yes, one of those losses included a miserable 4-1 defeat to an Arizona Coyotes team that was the odds-on favorite to finish in last place.
It’s important to note that this is still a rebuilding year. Even in a rebuilding year, the Sabres have been playing some of their best hockey in nearly a decade.
Where is some of this good hockey coming from? Well, the 5v5 offense of course.
With such a small sample of games so far, I like to focus on “5v5 Expected Goals For Per 60 Minutes.” Basically, how many goals is your team expected to score in 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time based on shot volume and danger. Actual goals can wildly fluctuate in a small sample due to luckiness (*cough* 2018/19 Sabres) or unluckiness.
The Sabres have been horrible at producing expected offense at 5v5. They finished 29th in the category in 2021/22, 27th in 2020/21, so basically you get the story. They are producing 2.68 xGF/60 at 5v5 so far this season, which is right at league average and a 0.53 xGF/60 improvement over last season.
The last time the Sabres 5v5 xGF/60 numbers were at league average or better? The 2010/11 season. The Atlanta Thrashers were in the NHL in 2010/11. Yes, it is still early on in the season and NHL offenses tend to cool down with time, but the Sabres’ offense is competent for the first time in over a decade.
With such a young group, positive signs of growth like this are what you want to see from this hockey club.
And eventually, they won’t be getting unlucky bounces like this one going against their favor on the other side of the ice:
The Power “Half Hour”
I have to dedicate a small portion of this newsletter to Owen Power’s incredible performance against the 3-time Eastern Conference finalists on Saturday night.
The Sabres went into Tampa with 3 of their top 4 defensemen injured, so Power was called upon to be their #1.
The 19-year-old defenseman had an absolute night out there:
Oh and that includes this as well:
Just some real confidence with the puck from #25 that led to goals for the Sabres:
With how Power has been playing at just 19 years old, it’s not too crazy to imagine him being a true #1 defenseman at some point in the future. Toss him in the mix with Rasmus Dahlin, who has finally been playing like a true #1 this season, and the Sabres are left with an embarrassment of riches on their backend.
Down on the Farm: Two wins, one loss, and thirteen goals
The Rochester Americans went 2-1-0 last week winning a 7-3 decision against the Syracuse Crunch that included this beautiful goal from Jiri Kulich:
The Amerks beat the Utica Comets 5-3 in their first of two matches against them, getting this beautiful finish from Lukas Rousek:
They dropped their second match against Utica 2-1, with Brett Murray scoring the Amerks’ lone goal and Tyson Kozak picking up his 1st professional assist.
Rochester’s next game is tonight: an away match against the Syracuse Crunch at 7 PM ET.
Game Preview: Golden Knights @ Sabres, 11/10/22, 7:00 PM ET
Jack is back (again) and the KeyBank Center should be loud (again).
If you’re feeling another upset win like last season, The Sabres will enter this game as clear underdogs.
Taking a look at the BetStamp app, the best odds to bet the Sabres straight-up are at FanDuel Sportsbook with a line of +146.
Golden Knights by the Numbers 📊
Record: 12-2-0 (14 points) | Division: 1st | League: 1st
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 59.7% (4th in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 59.9% (4th in the NHL)
Scouting the Golden Knights
Hot Goaltending: the Vegas Golden Knights have been getting some of the best goaltending in the league thanks to some stellar performances from Logan Thompson. We’ll see if the Sabres get the starter or the backup on Thursday
Elite 5v5 Play: they are a top-4 team in terms of 5v5 xGF% and 5v5 GF%, they get their chances and don’t allow much for their opponents
Not the 2021/22 Golden Knights: Vegas is fully back. They’re healthy and not too similar to the team that missed the playoffs last season. Fully deserving of the 12-2-0 record
Players to Watch
Alex Tuch (BUF): he was the other main piece in the trade that sent Jack Eichel to Vegas last season. He scored the empty-netter that sealed the deal for the Sabres in their last match against the Golden Knights. Look for Tuch to be playing some motivated hockey
Jack Eichel (VGK): there’s really no other option here. This is not the Eichel that Buffalo saw last season. He is fully healthy, has 15 points in 14 games, and is posting the best advance metrics of his career. The boos shall be heavy on Thursday night