Wow, almost forgot that the Sabres season is still going on. They have played a total of 1 game since January 2nd due to various delays in their schedule.
Despite the lack of games, we still have a bunch of stuff to talk about in this week’s edition of The Charge. We’ll cover everything from Dylan Cozens to the 2022 NHL Draft class.
By the Numbers 📊
Record: 10-18-6 (26 points) | Division: 6th | League: 28th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 45.1% (29th in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 43.5% (28th in the NHL)
Quick Hits
Jack Quinn reassigned to the Sabres taxi squad
Tage Thompson placed in the NHL’s COVID-19 Protocol
Sabres to put Rick Jeanneret’s banner in the rafters at the KeyBank Center on April 1st vs. Nashville
Dylan Cozens: Prime for a breakout
I know Dylan Cozens may not be leading the Sabres in points or ice time. I know that he may not have the best RAPM chart or Goals Above Replacement numbers. I do believe you can call him the best forward on the Sabres, and many who have watched this team will not disagree.
Cozens is a good hockey player, but a different type of “good” than most are used to. He has a bunch of special individual talents: speed, goal-scoring ability, IQ. He’s not necessarily the most creative or finesse-type player. Yet that is not preventing him from being an effective player.
He’s proven that he can convert his tools into a useful package at the NHL.
This has been especially visible through his transition game. Corey Sznajder’s tracking data shows Cozens as far-and-away the best transition forward on the Sabres (one of the best in the league for that matter):
Sznajder’s tracking data also has Cozens as 2nd in Chances/60 (only behind Jeff Skinner) and 1st in Chance Assists/60 on the Sabres (he’s not even known as a playmaker!).
So what’s holding Cozens back? Outside of the general “getting used to the NHL as 20-year-old” struggles, I’d argue that it’s his teammates and just a general lack of talent in the Sabres’ forward corps.
According to Evolving-Hockey, Cozens has the 3rd lowest QoT (Quality of Teammates) on the Sabres alone and one of the worst in the NHL. His most common forward linemates have been Vinnie Hinostroza, Kyle Okposo, Brett Murray, and Drake Caggiula.
When looking at strictly point totals, it’s pretty clear that the Sabres power play is also holding him back. It’s not that he is not getting PP time, it’s that: A.) puck touches are limited outside of the point and flank positions in Buffalo and B.) the power play just stinks.
At the end of the day, Dylan Cozens’ tracked micro stats are good and that tends to translate into better play-driving results with age and an increase in talent level.
The arrival of Jack Quinn
The Buffalo Sabres announced on Monday that forward Jack Quinn has been reassigned to the team’s taxi squad and we all know that is just one step away from the NHL:
With a depleted Sabres roster, Quinn should be getting ice time with the big club tonight. He was even getting some line rushes in with Dylan Cozens which could be a very fun combo.
Quinn has been dominant as a 20-year-old in the AHL, recording 26 points in 20 games for the Rochester Americans.
Just check out that finishing ability:
Early 2022 NHL Mock Draft
There just hasn’t been a lot of Sabres hockey to talk about this past week. So it’s the perfect time for a quick little mock draft as draft talk continues to heat up around the league. As always, we’ll use the trusty Tankathon.com to determine the draft order:
Arizona - Shane Wright, C, Kingston (OHL)
Not the best draft year, but I still believe he will easily be the consensus #1 by this summer. #1C upside that the Coyotes desperately need.
Seattle - Simon Nemec, RHD, HK Nitra (Slovakia)
Right-handed defensemen are always in high demand. The Kraken grab Nemec at 2nd overall as they continue to build out their organizational depth.
Montreal - Matthew Savoie, C, Winnipeg (WHL)
It’s pretty clear that the Habs need help throughout their lineup, so they grab a fun offensive player here to kick off their impending rebuild.
Ottawa - Joakim Kemell, RW, JYP (Liiga)
Who knows what the Sens’ drafting strategy is? One thing I do know is that they could use some more high-end play in their forward group.
Buffalo - Logan Cooley, C, US NTDP (USHL)
The Sabres grab a very talented center here, a two-way player here with great hockey sense. The fantastic upside here for a 5th overall pick.
Columbus (via CHI) - Brad Lambert, C/RW, JYP (Liiga)
Oh, Chicago, what a package they sent to Columbus for Seth Jones. CBJ uses this “free pick” as an upside bet on a high-skilled forward.
New Jersey - Danila Yurov, RW, Magnitogorsk (KHL)
NJ is never afraid to take a bet on a Russian prospect, so they take a swing on the strong, skilled winger.
NY Islanders - Frank Nazar, C, US NTDP (USHL)
It has been a minute since the Islanders have had a pick this high in the draft. They use it to add some much-needed skill into their prospect pool.
Philadelphia - Juraj Slafkovsky, LW, TPS (Liiga)
We all know that a rebuild is coming in Philly, whether they like it or not. They take a unique 6’4”, 225 lb. (yet surprisingly skilled) winger prospect.
Columbus - David Jiricek, RHD, HC Plzen (Czech)
CBJ adds to their draft haul by taking a very talented right-handed defenseman. They walk away from the top 10 with lots of upside.
Game Preview: Tampa Bay Lightning @ Buffalo Sabres, 1/11/22
Not a great team to play when trying to end a losing streak!
Lightning By The Numbers
Record: 23-9-5 (51 points) | Division: 2nd | League: 2nd
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 53.4% (7th in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 53.6% (12th in the NHL)
Scouting the Lightning
Ferocious Forecheck: Tampa absolutely thrives on their forecheck/cycle offense, it’s one of the most efficient in the league and can be absolutely suffocating at times
2-3 Funnel: just watch the way Tampa moves in the offensive zone, it’s pretty neat. Three high, two low, and the forwards are constantly moving to swap spots
Players to Watch
Jack Quinn (BUF): Happy Jack Quinn debut day! Don’t expect him to immediately set the world on fire on a depleted Sabres squad that’s facing the back-to-back champ. At the same time, don’t be surprised if he nets a beauty
Taylor Raddysh (TBL): one of the more low-key names on Tampa. He’s the latest member of their “endless supply of prospects to fill out the bottom six” group. Just a two-way power forward who plays an effective game within his team’s system