Jeff Skinner: The goals (and the smile) are back
The Sabres' winger is on pace for 35 goals this season
Want a fun hockey game? Just play the Montreal Canadiens!
Alex Tuch continues to play well, Jeff Skinner is scoring goals again, and Peyton Krebs has been serving up some apples. The rebuild is far from complete, but some players are providing fans with glimmers of hope.
By the Numbers 📊
Record: 15-24-8 (38 points) | Division: 7th | League: 28th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 44.9% (30th in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 44.9% (25th in the NHL)
Quick Hits
Mark Pysyk set to skate in his 500th career NHL game, his 172nd with the Buffalo Sabres
Casey Mittelstadt out vs. the Islanders, may be game ready this week
Jeff Skinner: The goal-scoring machine
Jeff Skinner wowed fans with a 4 goal and 1 assist performance in a 5-3 win vs. Montreal this past weekend.
It’s difficult to believe that we are not even one year removed from Ralph Krueger scratching Jeff Skinner. When he was given the chance to play, he was relegated to 4th line minutes alongside the likes of Curtis Lazar and Riley Sheahan.
And everybody probably remembers this “gem” of a quote from Krueger:
*shivers*
Well, we have certainly moved past that era as the Sabres now have a coach who actually respects what Jeff Skinner can bring to the table.
The best way to describe to describe Skinner’s goal-scoring ability? Machine-like, with a clear “on” and “off” switch. Just look at his finishing chart from HockeyViz:
Some seasons in the 90th+ percentile and others in the 10th percentile or below. The chart as a whole would make a pretty good blueprint for a rollercoaster.
Skinner has the “on” switch turned on this season and is on pace for 35 goals in 80 games during his 2021/22 campaign. He’s having one of his best ever goal-scoring seasons at 5v5, producing at a 1.46 Goals/60 rate (better than his 1.34 Goals/60 rate alongside Eichel and Reinhart in 2018/19).
His individual expected goals per 60 (ixG/60) has jumped from 0.85 in 2020/21 to 1.09 in 2021/22. He is not just getting off more shot attempts, those shot attempts are more dangerous as well which have both helped spike his individual shooting danger.
At the end of the day, Skinner is a streaky goal-scorer whose streaks may best be defined as “vibes” and “luck.” There are ways to enhance these “vibes” and “luck” (better linemates, less restrictive coaching, etc.) and the Sabres appear to be doing that as we speak.
Peyton Krebs and the power play rejuvenation
The Sabres power play with Peyton Krebs: 8.20 xGF/60
The Sabres power play without Peyton Krebs: 5.60 xGF/60
Now certainly Peyton Krebs isn’t the only reason why the power play is better when he’s out there, but he is definitely part of the reason.
Just check out this beautiful “shot pass” he made to Tage Thompson on Sunday:
There are two things that stand out to me on this play: the mind and the ability.
The mind because he is able to recognize the tertiary option here before the puck even hits his blade. Shooting lane is closed, passing lane to the net front man is closed/not the best angle for puck reception, but the lane to Tage is narrowly open.
The ability because he is able to disguise his pass as a shot to fool the penalty killers. He is able to hit Tage with a soft pass that lands smoothly in his hip pocket for a quick shot release.
Coming Soon: Heritage Classic uniforms
For sports jersey nerds like myself, new uniform releases are always a big deal. With the 2022 Heritage Classic being less than a month away, the Sabres are expected to unveil their uniforms for the event some time this week.
The Heritage Classic has brought us some beautiful “old time” hockey uniform matchups, just check out this one between the Canucks and Senators in 2014:
Based on the previous renditions of this event: expect vintage, maybe even a new logo that we have never seen before.
Prospects Update: Rosén moves to Allsvenskan; Power going for gold
Isak Rosén may be one of the Sabres least talked about 1st round picks in a while, that’s largely because he has not been seeing the ice in the SHL. He hasn’t seen more than 8 minutes of ice time in that league since November 27th (!).
His SHL club, Leksand, has recently loaned him to Mora IK of the Allsvenskan (Swedish 2nd division) with the hope of more ice time. Think of the league as just a small step below the AHL.
Through 3 games for Mora IK (or maybe 2.5 since he was injured midway through his last game), Rosén has recorded a goal and an assist:
Where to start with Owen Power? He has had a very impressive Olympics so far, leading all Canadians in ice time despite only being 19 years old. The box score stats may not jump off the page, with only 1 point through 4 games, but his on-ice play has been solid.
Power had a pretty rough start in today’s game vs. China with a rough giveaway that led to a goal against. He managed to bounce back and, as a whole, the good has certainly outweighed the bad for him this tournament.
It’s difficult to see the 6’5” defenseman play and not get excited about the potential he brings to the table. Not many players at his size can move as elegantly as he can.
Game Preview: New York Islanders @ Buffalo Sabres, 2/15/22
I still do not think I have recovered from the Sabres’ 8 games against the Islanders last season
Islanders by the Numbers 📊
Record: 17-19-6 (40 points) | Division: 6th | League: 25th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 49.1% (18th in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 47.2% (22nd in the NHL)
Scouting the Islanders
Barzal, Barzal, Barzal: the Islanders, as a whole, are not a team that thrives on playing off the rush. Mat Barzal though? He’s one of the premier transition players in the NHL and can knife through the neutral zone at will
No Finish: the Islanders have been one of the worst finishing teams in the NHL this season. They have 19.2 goals below expected (29th in the NHL)
Players to Watch
Jeff Skinner (BUF): this man is on fire right now, so it’s only right to put him as the Sabres player to watch for tonight. Back-to-back hat trick watch?
Ilya Sorokin (NYI): the Russian goalie playing in Manhattan may be getting all of the hype this year, but it’s time to talk about the one playing on the Island. Sorokin is 4th among starting goalies in goals saved above expected and boasts a solid .920 SV%.
The Week Ahead
Thursday, February 17: vs. Ottawa, 7 PM ET (TV: MSG)
Saturday, February 19: vs. Colorado, 1 PM ET (TV: MSG)
Sunday, February 20: @ Columbus, 6 PM ET (TV: MSG)
This week will be interesting to watch. Sabres play against NYI, OTT, and COL (best team in the league) and CBJ. I hope they can start a winning streak this week.