The Buffalo Sabres took down the Anaheim Ducks, but not without a few bumps in the road. They look find their rhythm again and get back to their winning ways.
By the Numbers 📊
Record: 27-22-4 (58 points) | Division: 5th | League: 20th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 49.9% (21st in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 50.6% (18th in the NHL)
Quick Hits
Sabres’ prospect Devon Levi named to the shortlist for the Mike Richter Award (most outstanding NCAA Division 1 goaltender)
Finding the Rhythm
The Buffalo Sabres made some very notable (and somewhat controversial) line changes ahead of their game against the Los Angeles Kings.
Every line was broken up, including the highly successful Skinner-Thompson-Tuch line.
Head coach Don Granato eventually went back to the top line as the game went on, but it was almost too late as the Sabres were already down 2-0 and would eventually fall 5-2.
Granato provided some insight on why he decided to shake up his lines on WGR 550 this morning: “These guys are not in a groove, not in a rhythm. And instead of them being mad at their linemates...I would rather have them mad at me.”
“Maybe in the ensuing they get upset at me, but then when I see them get into rhythm I put lines back together and it’s like they were never mad at each other. So you have to manage situations like that knowing you are going to go through phases and you don’t want to extend phases.”
Granato has a firm understanding that most teams do not have the ability to completely dominate another team for a full 60 minutes at 5v5, especially in a league with a very small talent gap like the NHL. Short-term losses for long-term gains is the name of the game here. The team cannot afford to wait to find their rhythm at this point in the season.
After testing the willpower of his team with unfamiliar linemates in Los Angeles, he went back to somewhat familiar lines in Anaheim with some movement in the bottom nine.
The Girgensons-Jost-Okposo line was the “fourth line” but they actually led the team in 5v5 ice time last night with 11:28. Jost appeared to fit seamlessly with the veteran duo that has been muddying up the game for the opponents for the past few seasons.
The Mittelstadt-Krebs-Quinn line featured two players who have struggled to find a home in the middle of the Sabres lineup the past two seasons, but they were quite fantastic against Anaheim. They were on the ice for two goals, including this nice passing play:
There is a method to Don Granato’s madness. Maybe some of these line changes stick, or maybe not. However, the option will always be there to go back to the original lines that led to one of the most potent offenses in the NHL. The time away from familiarity may just be what this team needs to find their rhythm after a long break.
Goaltending Woes: Three goalies, three not-great games
The Buffalo Sabres are currently carrying three goalies on their 23-man roster and, at one point in time, this made a lot of sense.
Craig Anderson was having a fantastic season, but was limited in workload due to him being 41 years old. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen provided the Sabres with some dazzling performances after being recalled from Rochester because of the Eric Comrie injury. Eric Comrie is fresh off signing a two-year deal with the Sabres and has only played in 14 games.
When Eric Comrie returned from injury, it made sense for the Sabres to run things with three goaltenders. However, the Sabres received back-to-back-to-back mediocre performances in a three-game run where all three of their goaltenders got a start.
According to Evolving-Hockey, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen allowed 7 goals on 3.52 expected goals against vs. Calgary. Craig Anderson allowed 5 goals on 2.31 expected goals against vs. Los Angeles. That was followed up by Eric Comrie allowing 3 goals on 2.84 expected goals, a performance saved by a strong third period.
Here’s how the Sabres goalies rank by GSAx/60 (Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 minutes) over their last three starts:
None of the three goalies have been particularly good as of late: Luukkonen has been the worst of the three and Comrie has been the best/most consistent, yet still not great.
What to expect going forward? I expect them to still keep the three goalies since all of the roster moves necessary to keep three goalies (i.e. waiving Hinostroza and Fitzgerald) have already been performed. However, there is really no clear cut #1 goaltender at this point, so it will be interesting to see how the starts are distributed.
Prospects Update: Levi wins Beanpot, Savoie stays fun
All eyes in the Boston hockey world were focused on the 2023 Beanpot Tournament, an in-season college hockey tournament features the city’s four most historic programs. Devon Levi and the Northeastern Huskies battled the Harvard Crimson for the Beanpot championship this past Monday.
Let’s just say that Levi lived up to the hype. He posted a .956 SV% and a 1.44 GAA in his two Beanpot games and was named the MVP of the tournament. He helped the Huskies pick up some huge results as they push for postseason play.
The best way to describe Matthew Savoie’s game? Fun. The Sabres’ 2022 8th overall pick has 6 points in 4 games for a dominant Winnipeg Ice team. He picked up two points (1 G, 1 A) and was named First Star in a 5-3 win over Swift Current last night. Here’s a clip of his assist:
Game Preview: Sabres @ Sharks, 2/18/23, 10:30 PM ET
Sabres After Dark just hits different on a Saturday night.
Sharks by the Numbers 📊
Record: 17-27-11 (45 points) | Division: 7th | League: 29th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 51.8% (13th in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 46.5% (24th in the NHL)
Scouting the Sharks
Better Than They Looks: the above xGF% is not a typo, the Sharks have been a team who has been out-chancing their opponents at 5v5. Their goaltending has been sinking the ship a bit this season, but they’ve got sneaky potential on any given night with their shot differential
Win with the Rush: the Sabres found magic on the rush against the Sharks the last time these two teams met. The Peterka-Cozens-Quinn line looked bordeline unstoppable that game, maybe Don Granato goes to back to it this weekend?
Players to Watch
Erik Karlsson (SJS): here is a player who some may have forgotten he was even in the league these past few seasons. However, it looks like the old Karlsson is back (maybe even better) as he is on pace to score 109 points in 82 games this season. Not bad for a 32-year-old defenseman
Dylan Cozens (BUF): his line with Peterka and Olofsson really struggled against the Ducks on Wednesday. Cozens also struggled to generate much when placed between Tuch and Skinner against the Kings on Monday. It will be interesting to see where he is placed in the lineup and how he performs on Saturday