Only one more night until Buffalo Sabres hockey is back, I know we can all get through this together
By the Numbers š
Record: 26-20-4 (56 points) | Division: 5th | League: 20th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 49.9% (22nd in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 51.2% (17th in the NHL)
Quick Hits
Dylan Cozens signs a 7-year, $50 million extension with the Buffalo Sabres
Tage Thompson expected to practice Friday, play Saturday according to Head coach Don Granato
7 More Years
As you may already know, Dylan Cozens put the pen to paper on a 7-year, $50 million contract extension that will keep him in Buffalo through the 2029/30 season. The Sabres now have their top two centers locked up for the same amount of time at an extremely reasonable $14.24 million combined cap hit.
GM Kevyn Adams has shown a willingness to get his young players under contract on long-term deals. We saw it this past summer with Tage Thompson and Mattias Samuelsson, we are seeing it now with this Dylan Cozens deal.
Is there some risk associated with this contract? Sure, most long-term contracts given to a player coming off their entry-level deal can seem like a ābuy a larger shirt size so they grow into itā type of deal. However, heās already playing pretty close to the level of a $7.1 million player.
Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldmanās player cards for The Athletic currently have Cozens rated as a $6 million player. At just 22 years old, he is a player who will improve as he continues to find his footing at the NHL level.
Development is not always linear, but a lot of things about Cozensā development so far have been linear.
The improvement in his Goals Above Replacement numbers in Evolving-Hockeyās model has been somewhat linear:
The improvement in his good olā point production has been somewhat linear as well:
This has been a ābreakoutā season for Dylan Cozens. He was already starting to play great hockey at the end of last season, it just never appeared on the scoresheet for him. Now that heās got two fun rookies on his flanks, the rush offense has been fantastic:
Thereās still room for Cozens to grow in terms of consistency and efficiency, but thereās no reason to expect that he wonāt get there. He is a young player who will continue to improve with this young team and heās one of the key players behind the Sabresā scoring depth renaissance this season.
Kill the Rush, Kill the Sabres
It feels like the Sabres last game was forever ago (because it was), but I think the 5-1 loss to the Hurricanes illustrated some of the problems this young Sabres team has.
As you can see via Corey Sznajderās tracked data, this Sabres squad loves creating offense on the rush. Only two teams in the NHL create more shots on the rush:
You know what kills the Sabres? Teams that can stifle rush offenses by preventing entries (aka the top left corner):
Against the four teams that are best at denying entries (CAR, NJD, FLA, SEA), the Sabres have a rough 0-7-0 record while scoring just 1.86 goals per game. Outside of those seven games, the Sabres have been scoring 4.02 goals per game!
This is one of the growing pains this young Sabres team will experience and itās not necessarily a bad one to have. Their controlled play and regroups have been lethal against the majority of the NHL, but they find themselves in trouble when they play teams that donāt allow those rush chances to form.
As this young group continues to mature and continues to add dimension to their offensive games, we should see marked improvements against some of the NHLās more stifling defenses. Itās all part of the process.
Prospects Update: Ćstlund heats up, Komarov scoring, Nadeau producing
Donāt look now, but Noah Ćstlund has 11 points in his 10 games in the Allsvenskan since returning from the World Juniors. The 2022 1st round pick is putting up points in a variety of ways:
Vsevolod Komarov, the Sabresā 2022 5th round pick, has been scoring goals as defenseman for the Quebec Remparts in the QMJHL. He has 4 goals (6 points) in his last 5 games and is a fun long-term prospect to keep an eye on:
Olivier Nadeau did not play his first game this season until 12/28 after bouncing back from an offseason surgery. Heās come out hot on a loaded Gatineau squad in the QMJHL, recording 14 goals in just 17 games. He had a hand in all 5 goals in Gatineauās inter-league match vs. Ottawa last night, scoring 4 of them. Oh and he had a 6-point game just a few weeks ago:
Game Preview: Flames @ Sabres, 2/11/22, 12:30 PM ET
The boys are back from their All-Star break, weāll see how quickly they can go from sipping daiquiris to scoring goals
Flames by the Numbers š
Record: 24-18-10 (58 points) | Division: 5th | League: 18th
5v5 Expected Goals-For Percentage (xGF%): 53.6% (7th in the NHL)
5v5 Goals-For Percentage (GF%): 52.0% (13th in the NHL)
Scouting the Flames
Shot Suppression: only two teams in the NHL allow less shots per game than the Flames at 5v5. They have been giving up just 26.3 shots against per 60 minutes
Beat with the Rush: the Flames are what I would characterize as in-zone defending team. They will allow you to carry in the puck, but wonāt let you do much after the fact. Sabres need to turn the ice and attack with pace to overcome that
Players to Watch
Alex Tuch (BUF): he scored a hat trick the last time these two teams met. A lot people forget that he is on pace for a very impressive 90-point campaign. His speedy attacks, hard backchecking, and smooth puck receptions will be key in taking down the Flames
Mackenzie Weegar (CGY): Weegar is one of the more effective defensemen in the NHL at preventing zone entries. If the Sabres decide to carry the puck on his side of the ice, they may find themselves in trouble