⚔️ 11-7 vs. 12-6: Which has been better?
Let’s take things back to the evening of November 4th. Mattias Samuelsson suffered a lower body injury, so the Sabres decided to re-call rookie defenseman Ryan Johnson from Rochester just hours before their game against Toronto.
To ease Johnson in the lineup, the Sabres opted to dress 11 forwards and 7 defensemen that game rather than the more traditional 12 forwards and 6 defensemen. This leads to a forced rotation of pairs and lines rather than the evenly split three defense pairs and four forward lines.
The Sabres went on to defeat the Maple Leafs 6-4 on the road that night in one of their best efforts of the season.
The 11-7 lineup was thought to be just a temporary placeholder in an emergency situation. However, the Sabres would go back to it 5 more times in their next 10 games.
This certainly drew the ire of a number of Sabres fans. I wasn’t really a fan of the 11-7 lineup either. It just looked ugly in the pre-game graphics and I was never really sure who was paired with who. I was also given flashbacks of when the Sabres dressed Brandon Montour as a “forward.” Were my complaints based on any on-ice results? No, I just didn’t like it because the vibes seemed off.
So how about we take a look at the on-ice results and compare the Sabres’ 11-7 lineup to their 12-6 lineup:
The Record
The Sabres started going with the 11-7 lineup in the month of November and have used it a total of 6 times (at TOR, at PIT, at CHI, at WSH, vs. PIT, at NYR).
They used the 12-6 lineup in, well, all of the other games this season for a total of 16 games.
Easiest thing to do would be comparing the record between the 11-7 lineup and the 12-6 lineup:
When the Sabres have dressed 12 forwards and 6 defensemen they have a 6-9-1 record this season for a total of 13 points in 16 games.
When the Sabres have dressed 11 forwards and 7 defensemen this season they have a 4-1-1 record for a total of 9 points in 6 games.
Yes, you read that right. The Sabres have been significantly better when using the unconventional 11-7 lineup over the traditional 12-6 lineup. Like 2 less wins in 10 less games played better.
I already know your next question: who were the goalies in those games? Did the Sabres just benefit from a hot Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen?
UPL posted a 3-1-0 record in the 11-7 lineup games while Devon Levi had a 1-0-1 record. So maybe some of it can be attributed to a hot UPL, but certainly not all of it.
The 5v5 Play
One way to separate the goaltending from things is by simply looking at what is happening on the ice in front of the goaltenders.
So let’s compare the 5v5 results between the 11-7 and 12-6:
As you can see, things are pretty much better across the board for the 11-7 lineup.
They generated more expected goals per 60 minutes (2.62 to 2.34), gave up less expected goals per 60 minutes (2.27 to 2.77), and therefore they have a better expected goals for percentage (53.5% to 45.8%).
We can even take a look at actual 5v5 goals scored per 60 in the last row and the 11-7 lineup still beats out the 12-6 lineup.
Head coach Don Granato has been taking the heat all month for continuing to roll with the 11-7, but the Sabres have actually been playing better hockey with that lineup formation. They even managed to beat the New York Rangers who were 15-3-1 heading into Monday’s battle.
Conclusion
More complex statistical analyses can be done to compare the 11-7 lineup to the 12-6 lineup, but a basic glance over the small sample of stats reveal that dressing 11 forwards and an extra defenseman has not been hurting the Sabres.
In fact, it looks like it may have helped them.
There are valid arguments against the 11-7 lineup: It’s more difficult to build chemistry as a unit and the top forwards are given a greater workload.
On the flip side, players get to build chemistry with a wider variety of line-mates and defense partners. The top forwards getting more ice time may actually be better (in the short term) since your game-changing players are on the ice more. It’s also easier to bench players having an off night in an 11-7 lineup, something that is bound to happen with a young roster in an 82-game season.
The Sabres may not need to run the 11-7 lineup for a while with Devon Levi being sent to the AHL and a 13th forward being called up to the 23-man roster in his place.
However, those who have used the 11-7 lineup as a knock on Don Granato may need to find new material.